VIDEO: Hobart’s new stadium likely go ahead

SPEAKER:  What do we want? 

CROWD:  No stadium. 

LEON COMPTON, ABC TASMANIA MORNINGS:  It’s dominated Tasmania enormously. There have been few bigger stories over the last few years than the AFL stadium. 

SPEAKER:  We deserve this stadium. 

ANNOUNCER:  Mornings with Leon Compton. Now we’re talking Tasmania on 936…

LEON COMPTON:  Good morning, great to have your company, wherever you’re tuning in right around Tasmania. It’s another huge week when it comes to the stadium debate. 

TALKBACK CALLER:  The major problem is that essentially our budget in the state is buggered. Like, everyone knows that. 

TALKBACK CALLER:  I’m pro. Absolutely believe in it and believe in Tasmania’s future. 

TALKBACK CALLER:  The costs are going to blow out, they always do and I just feel really really really sad about it. 

LEON COMPTON: Literally this morning, hundreds of texts and we've had people calling in from all around Tasmania. So there's been really passionate views on both sides, and it's always been challenging to try and understand how much of our audience is in the middle. But it's certainly been tense, it’s been engaging.   

ELLEN COULTER, REPORTER: It’s been more than three years since the then-Tasmanian premier proposed a football stadium for Hobart - an idea that quickly became a condition the state would need to meet, in order for the AFL to grant Tasmania a team. 

The island has been furiously divided ever since. 

LEON COMPTON:  We're a footy state. People want a team, but the price. The question is the price. And the stadium has a price for a lot of people has been too great. But then there's that question, do you get to argue, I'm for a team but against the stadium?

ELLEN COULTER:  The Liberal government is fiercely in support of the stadium pushing ahead despite a dire state budget and a scathing report by the state’s own planning commission saying it shouldn’t proceed.   

An order to approve the stadium sailed through the Lower House with the support of both major parties last month. 

Since then, thousands have rallied for or against.

LEON COMPTON:  One of the interesting things about this debate is that a lot of people involved in it have never protested or rallied for anything before. And I think that's quite distinctive. 

ELLEN COULTER:  Now, after weeks of pressure, Tasmania’s Upper House looks set to vote in favour of the stadium.

It became apparent the order was likely to pass when a key independent declared her intention to vote yes on Wednesday morning. 

BEC THOMAS, INDEPENDENT MLC: This has been one of the hardest decisions that I have ever made. In fact this has been the hardest decision I have ever made. 

MARK BROWN, PRO-STADIUM CAMPAIGNER:  I looked at my phone and I think for about 30 seconds to a minute and I didn't know what to think. And then I just broke down because the realisation of two and a half years of pushing for the stadium with the group, you know has come to fruition. So it was, yeah, it was very emotional.

ELLEN COULTER:  Mark Brown is the man behind a pro-stadium Facebook group and weekend rally that attracted more than 10,000 people.   

MARK BROWN:  It's not for me. It's not for the older generation, it's for the future of the young kids now, having won that opportunity to play AFL football for their home state and not have to leave.

It’s going to mean so much. Yes, it's going to create some debt and, you know, I acknowledge that. 

ELLEN COULTER:  The cost of the stadium has gone from an estimated $715 million to now $1.3 billion.

To secure the vote of undecided independents, the state government has made a series of commitments including to cap Tasmania’s overall spend at $875-million. 

So if the budget blows out, to keep that commitment either the design will need to change, or it’ll be up to others to foot the bill. 

ROLAND BROWNE, OUR PLACE HOBART:  You'd have to ask the geniuses in the government about how they're going to come up with the extra money to fund the stadium because there is no way it's going to come in at $1.13 billion. 

JEREMY ROCKLIFF, TS. PREMIER:  We’ll value manage the project to ensure that we are within the $875-million, whether that be value-managing the project, some internal redesign potentially but also seeking other sources of funds as well with our key partners, most notably the federal government. 

ELLEN COULTER:  The Australian Government says its contribution to the stadium precinct is capped at the $240 million it’s already committed. 

The project has already missed planning deadlines imposed by the AFL contract and construction will be on a tight timeline. 

The stadium needs to be 50 per cent complete by October 2027 and ready for games by the 2029 season, or the government will need to compensate the club.   

But those opposed to a stadium aren’t going down without a fight. 

ROLAND BROWNE:  No, it’s not over at all. Hobart is one of the most socially active and progressive cities in the country. Tasmania has a history of direct action, whether it relates to salmon farming, forestry, the pulp mill, the Gordon below Franklin Dam, there’s a very serious commitment to stop these bad things happening and I won't be surprised if we see direct action, that is protests on the site. 

MARK BROWN:  Now’s the time for everyone to come together, get behind the Devils and, you know, make them successful, because that's what this is all about and the stadium, you know. 

Without the stadium, they're not going to be successful, we all know that. Just some people just don't want to believe that.