Albanese reached his zenith in 2025, but 2026 could test the limits of Labor's power

It is hard to imagine a better end to the prime minister's year than this one. 2025 was punctuated by a thumping election victory, an implosion of his main political rivals, the Coalition, and at the end, a pivotal piece of legislation clearing parliament by the deadline he set himself.

When he stood up at an early morning press conference and announced that the fraught environmental legislation would pass, his comments lauding the Greens for their maturity and deal-making left many observers, myself included, needing to check whether I had missed some tectonic political plot twist.

This is a man who relishes telling anyone who will listen that he has spent his life fighting Tories. Yet that sparring seems tame compared to his personal brawl with the Greens, driven by hand-to-hand combat with the left-leaning party he faces in his inner-west Sydney electorate. His language towards the party has, over the years, escalated in hostility and vitriol, which made his comments on Thursday so jarring in contrast to previous statements.

Fairytale wedding in a political context

To cap off the year, Albanese had a spectacular, fairytale wedding in his main residence over the weekend. And it's important to put that wedding into context. A wedding like that can only be held if a political leader is at the peak of their power. The idea that this wedding was held with no evaluation of its political ramifications is fanciful.

I have spoken to scores of Labor people who had been worried about when the wedding would occur and the public's perception of it. It is no accident that it wasn't held at Kirribilli House, the PM's Sydney harbourside residence. There have been some eyebrows raised by Coalition frontbenchers who have contacted me about whether it is appropriate to hold a private wedding at the PM's official residence.

The fact that Opposition Leader Sussan Ley hasn't rebuked the decision is a sign that she has read the room on making comments that risk over-reach. Attacking Albanese for his Joy Division T-shirt and calling for Kevin Rudd to be sacked are just two recent examples of where Ley has misfired.

For the sake of her own position, it is fair to say she can't afford another botched political attack. That has seen her dead bat any calls to criticise the event, instead offering well-wishes to the newlywed PM and his new wife, Jodie Haydon.

It's a smart political call to let the public decide whether it is fair. It is hard to imagine there will be a backlash: Key details of the event, including that the couple paid for it themselves, and its modesty and size, are likely to inoculate Albanese from criticism.

Albanese's Labor government is at its political zenith — and it's hard to imagine a better time for an event like this.

The wedding has been Canberra's worst-kept secret, but security concerns influenced the decision to hold it at the Lodge, and those same security concerns were used to deliver a strong edict to the media to refrain from reporting on the event before the day. But the decision didn't come without deep deliberation. The timing comes at the best possible time for the government.

The couple's relationship made headlines in October last year when 2GB's Ben Fordham revealed that Albanese had bought a $4.3 million clifftop house on the NSW Central Coast, near Haydon's family, to be the couple's post-politics home. At that time, the PM's judgement was seriously questioned not only publicly but privately by his colleagues, including those closest to him.

What a difference a year makes.

Since that property foray, we had an election that saw the Coalition record one of its worst performances in recorded history. Yet despite the brutal result, one former Liberal MP predicted the party was still in freefall. Asked if the party had hit rock bottom, Jason Falinski could not help but laugh at his side's misfortune: "I think the answer is no."

"There's further for us to go, but that's necessary. I think we've put off a lot of arguments for a long time, and it's time to have it out."

But with One Nation continuing to poll strongly while the Coalition's vote ebbs away, it's hard to imagine things won't get worse. Conversely, it's hard to imagine that political gravity won't hit the government.

There is bad news, too

Two pieces of diabolical news hit the government in the last week, but political momentum was punctuated by the Coalition losing to the crossbench (and potentially One Nation), its once-great retail political asset, Barnaby Joyce, meaning these two pivotal news points broke with little fanfare.

One was the inflation figure of 3.8 per cent, edging ever closer to the RBA's danger zone outside of the 2 to 3 per cent range.

The other was the news that Australia will fall short of its 2035 emissions reduction targets.

Both pieces of news are deeply worrying to the realists within government. They know that next year will likely be a difficult time. Those same pragmatists know the government can't continue to keep riding this inexplicably long wave.

In Labor circles, there is now a view that Andrew Hastie is the firm favourite to emerge as Liberal leader, and the party is actively thinking about how to frame him to ensure his rise doesn't capitalise on what will inevitably be some bad political news for the government.

The federal budget is not going to be full of fun and free stuff. It will have to be fiscally disciplined, and with inflation so stubborn, you'd imagine the public will tire of the blame for power bills consistently being laid at the foot of overseas events.

Albanese knows the reality of politics better than anyone and has a keen eye on how to ride the difficult times, which the mid-point after an election traditionally delivers. His warning to his caucus not to use the summer to rest for too long was the strongest sign that this is a man who never wants to repeat the dire political year he held the referendum on the Voice to Parliament.

The political scar tissue of that time stays with him and his colleagues, just as the lessons of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years do. Albanese isn't the only figure around the cabinet table that remembers how quickly the honeymoon that followed the Ruddslide saw the confetti combust.

Next year will test his ability to deliver on his ambition to lead a long-term Labor government, just as it will offer the Coalition the chance to start to rebuild from rabble to a credible and powerful alternative.

Patricia Karvelas is host of ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4pm weekdays on ABC News Channel, co-host of the weekly Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly and host of politics and news podcast Politics Now.