Hinchinbrook by-election a tick of approval for LNP government but no crystal ball for outcome of next election

In winning the Hinchinbrook by-election, David Crisafulli could not have asked for a better way to end his first year as Queensland premier.

The LNP government overcame a massive 13-point margin to snatch the north Queensland electorate off the Katter's Australian Party (KAP).

It is a historic win and marks the first time since 1998 that a government in Queensland has won a seat off a rival party in a by-election.

This result will ultimately make no real difference to the make-up of the parliament.

It is only a snapshot in time, in one electorate of the state, where the contest was not a traditional LNP versus Labor battle.

But this by-election was nevertheless a big test for the LNP government's brand in the regions a year after it was swept to office.

And it was a test it clearly passed, with voters giving the government the tick of approval it was seeking.

'Keep going'

On election night, the premier suggested the victory was an endorsement of his government's agenda.

The LNP was very keen to win Hinchinbrook – or at least put on a strong showing — with crime made a central focus in its push to seize the seat.

A string of ministers descended on the electorate to stand alongside the now victorious LNP candidate, Wayde Chiesa, in what was a very disciplined campaign.

Significant blow to minor party

As for the Katters, the defeat is a significant blow, reducing the minor party from three seats to two.

The by-election was sparked when the former KAP MP, Nick Dametto, quit parliament to run for Townsville mayor.

Mr Dametto previously held Hinchinbrook with a very comfortable 13-point margin — securing 46.4 per cent of the primary vote at the 2024 election.

The collapse in support for the KAP at this by-election indicates Mr Dametto carried considerable personal appeal in past elections.

The candidate the KAP picked for the by-election was Mark Molachino, a former councillor and deputy mayor in Townsville.

He also used to be a member of the Labor Party — something the LNP relentlessly highlighted in its bid to wrest the seat off the KAP.

In the last sitting week of parliament, ministers referred to Mr Molachino as "Labor's Katter candidate".

KAP leader Robbie Katter acknowledged he was feeling "pretty battered" after the by-election loss.

He also described the party's 30 per cent primary vote as "pretty solid".

"You can wax and wane in your numbers, and numerically it's not a great outcome. But I think there's a really good future for us in Queensland politics," Mr Katter said.

Questions for Labor

This by-election result also raises questions about how Labor is faring in the regions one year on since it was ousted from office.

Labor was never really in the hunt for this seat. It only secured 14 per cent of the primary vote in Hinchinbrook in 2024.

But its vote fell even further in this by-election, down to about 8.3 per cent.

It is very rare for Labor's vote in any seat to drop into single-digit territory.

This pushes them into fourth place in Hinchinbrook — behind the LNP, the Katters, and One Nation.

It is far from a perfect scenario for a party trying to rebuild its brand in the regions where it suffered big losses in 2024.

On Sunday, Opposition Leader Steven Miles insisted his focus was on the next general election in 2028.

"It reinforces what we have known and what we have been saying — that Labor needs to work hard to develop policies that appeal right across Queensland," he said.

Queensland University of Technology adjunct associate professor John Mickel — who is a former state Labor MP and speaker of parliament — said Labor should not have run in the by-election.

"It was not a seat that Labor was in anyway competitive … and that result illustrates that," he said.

Dr Mickel said given the by-election was three years out from the next general election, there was not much that could be drawn from the result.

"It's not a predictor," he said.

This by-election is by no means a crystal ball into the future of what may happen in 2028.

A lot can happen between now and then. A week is a long time in politics, let alone three years.