The Macquarie Point stadium decision is due this week — here's how it could play out
The Legislative Council will vote this week on the proposed Macquarie Point stadium. (Supplied: MPDC)
The debate over a new stadium in Hobart has been running for the better part of a decade — and is finally reaching its conclusion.
This week, the upper house will cast the deciding vote on whether to approve the proposed Macquarie Point stadium, after a parliamentary order sailed through the lower house last month with the Liberals, Labor and two crossbenchers voting together.
The next vote is much more uncertain.
On the "yes" side is the commitment that the stadium is a must for Tasmania to enter the AFL competition, that a Tasmania Devils team would be transformative for the state, and that it would increase private investment and boost the state's sport and entertainment economy.
A rally in support of the stadium was held on Sunday. (ABC News: Jessica Moran)
The "no" side points to the significant and escalating increase in state debt, diversion of public funds from other parts of government spending, the impact of the stadium on the Hobart CBD's heritage and geographic setting, and poor town planning outcomes.
There have been rallies for both sides — but now it is parliament's time to decide.
An anti-stadium rally was held a week ago. (ABC News: Jordan Young)
Who holds the crucial votes?
Tasmania's upper house.
The Legislative Council has 15 members, but that includes the president, Labor's Craig Farrell.
In the event of a tied vote, convention is that the president votes in the negative.
That means the stadium needs at least eight votes to be approved.
The Liberals have three votes, and Labor has two — they are all expected to vote in favour.
Independents Tania Rattray and Casey Hiscutt are leaning towards "yes" — that would bring it to seven votes.
A render of the warm-up facilities for players at the proposed stadium. (Supplied: MPDC)
On the other side, Greens MLC Cassy O'Connor and independent Meg Webb are firm "no" votes, and independents Mike Gaffney, Rosemary Armitage and Ruth Forrest are highly sceptical of the stadium and likely to vote no as well.
That leaves independents Bec Thomas and Dean Harriss, who are yet to declare which way they will vote, but both raised concerns about the stadium earlier this month.
Ms Thomas asked a wide range of questions about it during parliamentary hearings last week, but Mr Harriss did not.
They are the speeches to look out for.
It is unclear which way Dean Harriss and Bec Thomas will vote. (ABC News)
When is an outcome likely?
Debate is due to start mid-Wednesday, although an exact time is not yet confirmed.
An outcome could be known before then, should Ms Thomas or Mr Harriss publicly declare their position ahead of the debate.
Governments typically do not like risking a lost vote in parliament, so it could be the case that they hold off on debate until the numbers are guaranteed.
But there is also a firm deadline at play — the government says it must be decided on this year.
Once the debate starts, it comes down to the order of speakers.
They can speak for as long as they like as well — Ms Webb spoke for more than six hours during a poker machine policy debate.
The debate could last into Thursday evening, when a final vote takes place.
But once Ms Thomas or Mr Harriss's positions are known during their speeches, the final vote could be a fait accompli.
An artist's impression of inside the proposed stadium. (Supplied: MPDC)
What happens if it's a 'yes'?
In terms of the stadium itself, not a huge amount will happen right away.
The developer — the state-owned Macquarie Point Development Corporation — says site excavations and the relocation of a heritage-listed goods shed are among the first tasks.
A final construction contractor is not expected to be locked in until the fourth quarter of 2026, and final design elements would be confirmed — including the domed EFTE roof.
If the stadium is approved, it will be a while before construction starts. (Supplied: MPDC)
The stadium is meant to be finished in time for the 2029 AFL men's season.
For the Tasmania Devils AFL club, it would mean plans for its entry into the AFL men's competition in 2028 would continue to progress.
This would include the development of a high-performance centre at Kingston, south of Hobart, as well as various draft concessions for player recruitment.
What a club room could look like at the proposed stadium. (Supplied: MPDC)
What happens if it's a 'no'?
It would mean the conditions in the AFL licence relating to the stadium would not be met.
It is unclear if this would trigger another decision for the AFL Commission and the 18 clubs, or if the granting of a 19th licence to Tasmania would immediately be withdrawn.
Stadium opponents argue that this would bring parties back to the table for negotiation, but the Tasmania Devils told parliament last week that there would be "no Tasmanian team".
It is also unclear if that would end the Devils VFL club and AFLW teams as well.
In terms of Macquarie Point, the government previously had to pay out on a contract for a housing development on the land, after the stadium overrode it.
There has been decades of debate over what could go on Macquarie Point other than a stadium — and those debates would likely continue.