The flashpoints leading the US and Venezuela to the brink of a conflict decades in the making

In the idyllic waters of the Caribbean Sea, thousands of United States military personnel wait.

A significant number are aboard the USS Gerald R Ford, described as "the most capable, adaptable and lethal platform in the world".

They are in place for what may come next in US President Donald Trump's war on "narco-terrorists".

For months, tensions between Mr Trump and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro Moros, who has labelled himself as "more famous than Taylor Swift in the US", have been escalating.

After months of launching lethal air strikes on vessels accused of shipping drugs north to the US, an expert says the Trump administration now appears to be threatening the prospect of a military conflict in Venezuela.

The relationship between Mr Trump and Mr Maduro has become "complex and volatile" but also reflects a broader collapse of diplomatic ties between the US and Venezuela spanning almost 30 years, according to UNSW's Latin America expert, Anthea McCarthy-Jones.

The White House claims Mr Maduro leads a narco-state that poses a threat to the lives of American citizens.

The Maduro government has always denied committing human rights abuses.

These are the major flashpoints that underpin the tensions.

The turn of the century

The rise, impact and death of the country's first socialist president, former military lieutenant colonel Hugo Chavez, shaped the Venezuela that Mr Maduro came to lead.

Democratically elected in 1999 and later buoyed by steadily rising crude oil prices amid a decades-long economic crisis, Mr Chavez led an assertive 14-year regime of nationalising key assets, creating a two million-member civilian militia and expanding diplomatic ties with Russia, China and Iran at the expense of relations with Washington DC, according to the US-based Council on Foreign Relations.

Dr McCarthy-Jones said Mr Chavez was a "charismatic" leader who was the first Venezuelan politician to openly reject democracy.

Mr Maduro was one of his loyal followers.

"Chavez was a very, very different character to Maduro," she told the ABC.

"He was able to engage large sections of the Venezuelan population. Maduro doesn't have that same charismatic leadership style.

"Maduro has tried to continue what he saw as Chavez's ideas and legacy for Venezuela, and obviously that has not worked out very well for your average Venezuelan."

The disputed elections

By 2013, there was a changing of the guard atop the Venezuelan regime.

Mr Chavez died of cancer and Mr Maduro — a unionist-turned-politician — was installed as his preferred successor.

At the time, a collapse in global oil prices toward the end of the Chavez presidency had impacted Venezuela's wealth and sparked increasing levels of violence, hyperinflation and shortages of food, basic goods and critical medicine.

As a result, Mr Maduro only claimed a narrow election victory in 2013, Dr McCarthy-Jones said.

After five years of political turbulence that followed, he was re-elected in 2018 in a vote condemned by dozens of countries, including Australia.

That election violated integrity standards after several opposition candidates were banned from taking part in the ballot, according to the independent, multinational Electoral Integrity Project run by academics in Canada and the UK.

Mr Maduro maintained power with 6 million Venezuelans' votes and complete control of the national military, despite opposition election boycotts and a voter turnout of just 46 per cent — the lowest in the country's history, according to the Project citing Spanish newspaper El Pais.

"You've got a regime in place that is going after anyone who is dissenting in their views against the administration, and the result is that Venezuela doesn't really have a functioning democracy anymore," Dr McCarthy-Jones said.

"The Maduro administration is an authoritarian regime that's holding onto power.

"The way in which the Venezuelan government has so poorly managed these situations has added weight to the claims by the Venezuelan opposition that this is a government that is illegitimate that hasn't been winning free and fair elections for many years.

"This has garnered a lot of support from the international community and attention to a situation that has been ongoing for over 10 years."

That election also marked the first significant escalation in tensions between Mr Trump and Mr Maduro.

A year after imposing sanctions on Venezuelan oil amid claims of a "humanitarian crisis" unfolding in the country, the first Trump administration then labelled Mr Maduro's re-election as a "sham".

He has also been accused of illegally consolidating authoritarian political power and overseeing alleged crimes against humanity such as the kidnapping, torture and murder of civilian Venezuelans, according to Human Rights Watch.

A similar situation unfolded in 2024 when thousands took to the streets of the capital, Caracas, to protest Mr Maduro's second re-election.

The National Electoral Council, which is loyal to Mr Maduro's socialist party, announced his victory despite his opposition raising more allegations of electoral fraud and a cover-up of tallies that showed voters had opted to remove him from power.

In 2025, the second Trump administration does not recognise the legitimacy of Mr Maduro's election.

The US president continues to say the Venezuelan regime "systemically undermines democratic institutions" by suppressing free and fair elections and consolidating power illegitimately.

The failed coup

After the US refusal to recognise Mr Maduro's 2018 re-election, diplomatic ties between the two presidents collapsed.

In January 2019, Venezuela's then-opposition leader Juan Guaidó attempted to orchestrate what Mr Maduro later labelled a months-long coup.

Backed by Venezuelans who protested in the capital Caracas, Mr Guaidó claimed the democratic process had been usurped by his rival and tried to invoke a constitutional provision that would declare him interim president.

Mr Trump then followed, releasing a White House statement that announced US recognition of Mr Guaidó as Venezuela's leader.

"In its role as the only legitimate branch of government duly elected by the Venezuelan people, the National Assembly invoked the country's constitution to declare Nicolas Maduro illegitimate, and the office of the presidency therefore vacant," the statement said.

"The people of Venezuela have courageously spoken out against Maduro and his regime and demanded freedom and the rule of law."

Mr Guaidó's announcement sparked a rapid spiral of social unrest in which multiple Venezuelans were killed and dozens more were injured, according to local medical officials at the time.

Mr Maduro also ordered all US diplomatic personnel to leave the country within a 72-hour period.

"The presence on Venezuelan soil of these officials represents a risk for the peace, unity and stability of the country," the Maduro government said in a statement at the time.

The US declaration was supported by a range of countries — including Canada, Brazil, Colombia and Australia — which urged for "a transition to democracy in Venezuela as soon as possible".

The uncertainty around Venezuela's true election result lasted until May, when Mr Guaidó called on the military to stage an uprising against Mr Maduro as part of a "final phase" of regime change dubbed "Operation Freedom".

But it failed to oust Mr Maduro when top military commanders sided with him, leaving the country deeper in political turmoil.

Trump's war on 'narco-terrorists'

During his 2024 election campaign, Mr Trump pledged to stop the importation of dangerous drugs such as fentanyl into the US from countries including Mexico and China.

He has used that policy in his second term to speak out and act against Venezuela.

In March this year, Mr Trump signed a proclamation that designated the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang as a Foreign Terrorist Organization that had "unlawfully infiltrated the United States" and was waging "irregular warfare" against Americans.

The Trump administration also alleges Mr Maduro is the quasi leader of the Cártel de los Soles, which he is accused of funding "to carry out its objective of using illegal narcotics as a weapon to 'flood' the United States".

Mr Maduro has always denied any involvement in crime and has repeatedly claimed the US is pursuing regime change in a bid to control Venezuela's natural resources, according to Reuters.

In August, the US State Department doubled a reward for information that led to Mr Maduro's arrest to $US50 million, alleging he managed a multi-national drugs organisation responsible for mass cocaine importation and the arming of Venezuelan gangs.

The bounty built on a 2020 New York indictment against Mr Maduro that alleged he was responsible for "narco-terrorism" involving cocaine importation and the possession of "machine guns and destructive devices".

This week, the White House added the Cártel de los Soles to its Foreign Terrorist Organization list, in a move the Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil rejected as "ridiculous".

Mr Gil said the Cártel de los Soles did not exist and that the measure revived "an infamous and vile lie to justify an illegitimate and illegal intervention against Venezuela, under the classic US regime-change format".

The Trump administration says its announcements have provided the legal justification for at least 21 lethal air strikes launched on vessels accused of carrying drugs in the Caribbean and Pacific Ocean.

At least 83 people have been killed in those strikes since September.

Human rights groups have condemned the strikes as illegal extrajudicial killings of civilians, and some US allies have expressed concerns about the attacks.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said his country was worried the strikes may violate international law, while Colombia and the UK have suspended sharing some intelligence with the US about vessels in the Caribbean, according to reports from Reuters and CNN.

Covert CIA operations and a historic military presence

In October, Mr Trump said he had authorised the CIA to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela.

The US president and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth have refused to rule out a potential land or military operation, or forced regime change, in the country.

It coincides with the largest build-up of US military forces in the region since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

That process has included the deployment of the USS Gerald R Ford — the world's largest military aircraft carrier — and about 15,000 personnel to the region.

The carrier arrived on November 16 with its strike group, joining at least seven other warships, a nuclear submarine and an F-35 fighter jet.

In response, Mr Maduro has been leading a public display of repeatedly calling for peace while mobilising 200,000 national military members and encouraging Venezuela's civilian army — the Bolivarian Militia — to take up arms in the event of any foreign attack.

On November 4, he told a meeting of the country's national assembly that US media coverage of his movements had made him "more famous than Taylor Swift" and Puerto Rican musician Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio, known by his stage name Bad Bunny.

Less than a fortnight later, Mr Maduro was broadcast on national TV pleading for a de-escalation of tensions with the US and singing John Lennon's song Imagine.

Mr Trump, who also accuses Venezuela of releasing prisoners who then relocated to the US, this month suggested he may still speak directly with Mr Maduro.

Dr McCarthy-Jones says that Mr Trump's "perplexing" leadership style makes it difficult to predict how the US may proceed.

But the prospect of regime change would not solve the societal issues overseen in Venezuela under the Maduro regime, she said.

"If you look at Donald Trump, there can be very, very big differences between the rhetoric and the actual action," Dr McCarthy-Jones said.

"I don't even know what [a] conflict would look like and what the conflict would even be trying to achieve.

"[Regime change is] still not going to immediately solve the crisis that most Venezuelans are experiencing every day.

"Since 2014, over 7 million Venezuelans have left the country, current inflation is sitting at over 200 per cent and there's projection that by the end of 2025 it could be as high as 500 per cent … Most Venezuelans are spending their days searching for basic food goods just to survive.