Victoria faces risky summer with bushfire potential fuelled by spring grass growth
AFAC says green grass growth could compound the summer fire risk. (AAP: David Crosling)
In short:
Fresh grass growth coupled with ongoing dry conditions have put Victoria on the map for bushfire risk this summer.
The latest Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC) forecast has highlighted the bushfire risk for Victorians as summer progresses.
What's next?
AFAC chief executive Rob Webb says everyone can play a role in bushfire safety "by being prepared and staying alert".
Victoria's south-west, north-central region, and south-western Gippsland have been put on high alert for an increased bushfire risk this summer, according to a new report.
Recent rainfall has hindered rather than helped at-risk regions, with fast-growing grass at risk of drying off quickly as summer progresses.
The latest Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC) summer outlook report showed Victorian vegetation "will not take long to dry" off the back of prolonged hot and dry spells.
Bushfire remains a risk for vast swathes of Victoria this summer. (Supplied: Rob Saunders)
East Gippsland, which was razed by bushfires in the Black Summer fires of 2019-20, was not identified as being at increased risk this summer, according to the AFAC outlook.
'Highly flammable'
Green grass growth in recent weeks, off the back of spring rain, could compound the fire risk and become "highly flammable" in January, according to the report.
AFAC chief executive Rob Webb said it was vital experts from fire services worked together with climate experts from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) when providing updates.
"They leave no stone unturned to provide the best possible information," he said.
"Australia is a great place to be in summer, but no matter where you live or travel this season, everyone can play an important role in bushfire safety by being prepared and staying alert to warnings."
The summer bushfire risk for Australia has just been released. (Supplied: AFAC)
The Victorian government has a statewide target to maintain fuel-driven bushfire risk at or below 70 per cent of maximum levels, according to the Joint Fuel Management Program for 2024-25 to 2026-27.
The Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action's annual report shows that fuel-driven fire risk for 2024-25 across Victoria is provisionally at 64 per cent, with final figures to be confirmed in December.
Forest Fire Management Victoria (FFMV) chief fire officer Chris Hardman said Victoria's emergency services were well prepared for bushfires and worked every day to reduce the risk for communities.
"Forest Fire Management Victoria crews use every opportunity possible to reduce the risk and impact of bushfires through planned burning," he said.
"When conditions are not suitable, we deliver non-burning works including mulching, mowing, spraying, constructing fuel breaks and maintaining road access for firefighting."
Mr Hardman said bushfire risk reduction works took place year-round.
"Our long-term strategy focuses on building a strategic network of fuel-reduced areas across public land, not just through one burn or one year, but through ongoing planned action," he said.
Is it enough?
In the past 12 months, FFMV has undertaken fuel-driven bushfire reduction works across more than 109,000ha of public land through planned burning and other works.
Member for Eastern Victoria Melina Bath said the royal commission into the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires set a recommended annual target of 5 per cent fuel reduction works in Victoria.
Fires burning just north of Mallacoota during the Black Summer of 2020. (Supplied: Mariska Ascher)
According to Ms Bath, the Victorian government's latest annual fuel reduction of 109,000ha of treated forest was only 1.4 per cent of the state's forest estate.
She said the 70 per cent fire fuel risk figures also took into account the impact of wildfire on fuel loads, making the fire risk appear lower than what it might be in reality.
“Government can fudge the figures by including bushfires in its own targets. And you can fudge the figures by averaging across a region,” Ms Bath said.
"Fires don't look at percentages. They run on fuel."
CFA deputy chief officer Trevor Owen said while recent rainfall in the high-risk region of south and west Gippsland had been welcome, underlying dryness was still persisting in the area.
"We're just starting now in the spring period to receive some rainfall that's really welcomed in those areas," he said.
"But it's been incredibly dry, and still remains dry and we do expect once we move into December that grassland areas really start to cure and dry-up quickly.
"I'm often asked as we lead into summer, is it a worse bushfire season than last.
"The reality is all you need is one or two weeks of solid, warm, dusty weather and that will in time quickly dry things out to the point where you only need one day, and a few hours in one day to cause some significant risk to the community."
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