Albanese government about to settle on Australia's 2035 climate target

The Albanese government is about to make one of its biggest decisions since its thumping election win in May. It's about to settle on a 2035 climate target.

But the timing is delicate. The number will only be announced after the prime minister has left the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) in the Solomon Islands.

Anthony Albanese has long argued being serious on climate change is the "entry fee" for credibility in the Pacific. He repeated the line yesterday in Honiara.

Pacific leaders not entirely satisfied

In opposition, Labor regularly accused the Morrison government of damaging Australia's standing in the Pacific through its inaction on climate change. And not without some justification.

At the 2019 PIF in Tuvalu, there were literally tears and anger as climate change was debated behind closed doors and Morrison faced pressure from Pacific leaders to do more.

Fiji's then leader Frank Bainimarama called it "probably one of the most frustrating days I have ever had". Tonga's prime minister apparently cried during discussion about the climate outlook.

One of the first acts of the Albanese government in 2022 was to legislate its 43 per cent by 2030 and net zero by 2050 emissions targets. Foreign Minister Penny Wong was dispatched to tour the region, selling the message that Australia's climate stance had changed.

That doesn't mean Pacific leaders are now entirely satisfied with the Albanese government's approach.

There was sharp criticism when Australia approved the extension of the North West Shelf gas project until 2070.

There's still concern Australia won't commit to the call from many in the Pacific for an end to new coal mines and a complete phase-out of fossil fuels.

And when it comes to Australia's level of climate ambition for the next decade, the Pacific has been left wondering at this year's forum.

Two factors in delayed 2035 target

So, why has Australia's 2035 target not yet been revealed?

The official reason for the delay, of course, has nothing to do with avoiding a backlash at the Pacific Islands Forum. It's pure coincidence, we're assured; the target wasn't quite ready to be unveiled in time for this gathering of climate concerned and strategically significant leaders.

The official reason, according to the government, is that it's still waiting for advice from the independent Climate Change Authority, as required by law.

At the time of writing, that advice had not yet been delivered.

Two factors have delayed the authority's recommendations.

One is the disruption caused to global climate action by Donald Trump's return to the White House and his decision to withdraw the US from the Paris agreement.

The other is the slower than expected roll-out of large-scale renewable energy projects, thanks to Australia's painfully cumbersome environmental approvals process (which the government is also trying to fix), and local community concerns.

The barriers to building big wind and solar projects have delivered a reality check to the authority.

The government's existing 43 per cent by 2030 target is already proving difficult to achieve. The slower than expected transition has forced a re-think on what's possible by 2035.

While the authority had previously consulted stakeholders on a 2035 emissions reduction target of 65-75 per cent below 2005 levels, that doesn't mean this will be its recommended range.

Wherever it lands (or more likely has already landed), the CCA's recommendation will be handed to the government in the coming days. A cabinet decision will then follow, with an announcement from the prime minister expected next week.

Albanese is tempering expectations.

"We want to make a decision that is achievable," he told reporters in Honiara, "and that takes into account the need for energy reliability."

While noting the impact climate change is already having in events including South Australia's algal bloom, and across the Pacific, the prime minister is cautious.

Even from a position of political strength, and with an opposition badly split over climate ambition, Albanese does not want to risk any backlash from households struggling with power prices.

"What we're doing is transitioning in a way that ensures that there's energy security, that ensures that there's community support for action," he said yesterday.

Australia pushes to host COP 2026

Australia's "entry fee" to the Pacific appears unlikely to include a 2035 target at the upper end of the 65-75 per cent range previously floated by the CCA.

If the prime minister's language gives us any clues, it will be a more "achievable" number. Expectations are being lowered.

Instead, Australia is showing its commitment to the Pacific's concerns by pushing hard to co-host next year's global climate summit.

The joint Australia-Pacific bid for the 2026 COP summit has strong support amongst the 28 countries that make up the "Western Europe and Others Group" bloc that's due to host the gathering.

The only problem is the other bidder, Turkiye, won't quit.

Albanese is set to meet Turkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in less than two weeks in an effort to break the deadlock.

If he can convince Turkiye to stand aside, Pacific leaders will be happy. They will use a co-hosted COP summit to make their case to the world about the climate crisis they face.

And importantly, Australia will have won some credit, as it tries to meet its entry fee in the Pacific.

David Speers is national political lead and host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview.