Nauru deal finds support amid confronting anti-immigration displays

With neo-Nazis openly on the march, addressing crowds, and even gate-crashing a press conference this week, many may have wondered what on earth is going on in Australia.

Even if some of those who marched on Sunday were not Nazis, but rather "good people", as the prime minister put it, the rising tide of anti-immigration sentiment seen in the US and Europe is now being felt on our shores too.

So, what exactly is the price of rebuilding and maintaining broad support for Australia's migration program?

Perhaps it's $408 million. And then some.

Details are scant

This vast sum is being handed to Nauru (along with $70 million a year ongoing) to take the unwanted NZYQ cohort of former immigration detainees, including those who've served time for a range of terrible crimes.

Before we explore how this Nauru deal is being justified, it's worth briefly touching on what we know about it.

As it happens, the price tag is just about the only detail we have.

What precisely is the money for? How can taxpayers be sure it's well spent in this tiny Pacific nation? How many people will ultimately be shunted to Nauru? Will the Australian people ever be given more information? The answers to these questions remain a mystery.

"We have arrangements with governments," is all the prime minister will say.

It's reminiscent of Scott Morrison's "on water matters" response whenever the then immigration minister was asked about boat turn-backs.

Some Labor MPs were at least able to ask Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke about the Nauru arrangement earlier this week behind closed doors. Not in the full caucus meeting, of course. Full caucus meetings are widely reported. No one raised a peep about the deal there.

Rather, this was a smaller sub-committee gathering of Labor MPs. And all those involved walked away apparently satisfied with this latest Pacific solution to an Australian migration problem.

'A down payment on social licence'

They recognise there is no love in the community for the NZYQ cohort, who were released from immigration detention after a High Court ruling in November 2023. Some went on to re-offend after their release. They have been nothing but a headache for the government and a political liability from day one.

Labor MPs raised no complaints about paying Nauru hundreds of millions of dollars to take them, particularly in light of this week's confronting anti-immigration marches.

The sight of neo-Nazis trying to whip up community anger and recruit new followers drove home to all how criticism of Australia's migration program can lead to and even legitimise hate speech, racism, and violence.

"Sometimes these tough decisions have to be taken to prevent something even worse happening," said one Labor backbencher, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

The $408 million being paid to Nauru to take the NZYQ cohort "is a down payment on social licence", said another.

It's "absolutely about that social licence", agreed a cabinet member, who pointed to Americans losing faith in Joe Biden over immigration, leading to the election of Donald Trump. The rising support in the UK for Nigel Farage, who wants to "boot out 600,000 migrants", was cited as another example.

The government's previous effort to deal with the NZYQ cohort through a new preventative detention regime proved unsuccessful. Attempts to argue their rate of recidivism was no different to Australian ex-cons just didn't wash.

Ultimately the government has decided to fix the NZYQ problem, and lower the temperature on migration more broadly, by signing a very big cheque. This solution has also involved turning once more to Nauru.

Echoes of the 'Pacific Solution'

There was a time when Anthony Albanese stood against his party adopting tougher measures on border protection. Ten years ago, he fought against Labor embracing boat turn-backs at the ALP National Conference. He was outnumbered by the right.

At the time, Albanese told Insiders his opposition to turning back asylum seeker boats was based on principle: "I couldn't ask someone else to do something that I couldn't see myself doing."

Much has changed in the decade since. Labor's left faction is no longer outnumbered. Albanese holds a commanding position. And he's now asking someone else to do something he won't.

He wants Nauru to deal with the convicted murderers and paedophiles Australia can't handle. This is a tiny Pacific nation, with an estimated population of around 12,000 people. How exactly it will absorb an unknown number of unwanted deportees from Australia, remains unclear. The hundreds of millions of dollars, presumably, will help.

It was John Howard who put the first "Pacific Solution" in place and argued tough border protection measures were necessary to maintain community support for Australia's migration program.

It's a similar argument now being made across the Labor caucus for the latest Nauru deal.

David Speers is national political lead and host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview.