Australians are having fewer babies – experts say it could have more consequences than we realise
Australia's fertility rate picked back up after the pandemic, but then crashed again in recent years. (ABC News: John Gunn)
In 2004, then treasurer Peter Costello announced the "baby bonus" — a tax incentive for Australians to prioritise having children.
"If you can have children it's a good thing to do — you should have one for the father, one for the mother and one for the country if you want to fix the aging demographic," he told parliament.
But 20 years on from the installation of the landmark policy, Australia's near record-low fertility rate has failed to lift.
Experts say it could have far-reaching consequences for the country's workforce, health system and cultural make-up.
Peter Costello introduced the baby bonus package along with a series of other measures in order to aid population growth in the early 2000s. (ABC News: Chris Gillett)
The latest data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed the possible future ahead of families, using previous birth rate data to estimate the country's population growth.
ABS demography director Phil Browning said the data meant Australia was unlikely to replace the current generation.
"In terms of where fertility is right now, it's down – it's really low for Australian history,"he said.
The baby is related to two other babies who were abandoned around the same area. (File). (Flickr: Quinn Dombrowski)
"The total fertility rate is a measure of across a woman's child-bearing years – [we estimate] that you will have 1.6 babies if she experiences that rate right through her fertile years, and we measure that from age 15 to age 49."
The ABS determined what would happen if Australia's fertility rate accelerated, decelerated or stayed at a similar rate.
All three projections from the ABS showed Australia was below the international average, meaning children would be outnumbered by people over the age of 65 by 2034.
Demographer Amanda Davies said on the face of it, the data was concerning.
"There's certainly concern in the community that Australians aren't having more children, and what that will mean for Australia and how it's going to shape [the country]," Dr Davies said.
"There certainly is concern about that, and how and what policies can be effective to assist Australians to have more children."
Amanda Davies says the data was concerning. (ABC News: Herlyn Kaur)
What does Australia's future look like?
Demographers said Australia was likely to deal with two main challenges; an aging population, and an under-resourced workforce.
Dr Davies said other countries ahead of Australia in population growth had already started tackling these issues head-on.
"Japan's a fantastic example of a country that is more advanced in aging than we are," she said.
Dr Davies said the country was already testing using artificial intelligence (AI) bots and services in the support workspace, in preparation for an increasingly elderly population.
"There are already a lot of tech companies developing in that space ... AI robots and services to check up on people's health and wellbeing, remind you to take your pills, have a chat to it to keep your mental faculties going," she said.
Vladimir Canudas Romo says data around births, deaths and migrants are essential to determining Australia's future. (Supplied: Australian National University)
Australian National University demographer Vladimir Canudos Romo said Australia could learn from more advanced countries about what to expect.
He agreed Japan had been proactive in its planning for the future.
"[The Japanese] are talking about not just how many people they have in the workforce, but how productive they are," he said.
Dr Canudos Romo said the employment rate in Japan found 40 per cent of people between 65 and 75 were still working.
"They're [having conversations] about what sort of tools you need to do the job without the energy of a young man, like robots," he said.
"We can have a population that has spent a very long number of years being trained, and they're extremely capable."
Migration likely to increase
The cultural make-up of Australia could also shift over the next five years if the fertility rate stays at its current level.
"Migration has been a solution for Australia over the last 60 years [when it comes to labour shortages]," Dr Canudos Romo said.
"Migration is going to be a key component around how we shape our workforce."
Peter McDonald, from the University of Melbourne, agreed.
"With no migration, Australia's population would begin to fall in about 10 years," Dr McDonald said.
"Many countries around the world are already experiencing population decline and most are not happy about that situation.
"As long as fertility remains at 1.6 and migration continues as it has over the past decade, Australia does not have a demographic-economic problem."
Dr Davies said for migration levels to stay the same in Australia — about 220,000 people per annum — the country was going to have to learn to compete on an international stage to attract migrants.
"A lot of other countries are further advanced," she said.
Dr Davies said Australia could be at risk of falling behind if discussions on migration were put off a generation.
The housing shortage has made many young people rethink their plans for a family. (ABC News: Michael Coggan)
The Costello kids are growing up
The current generation of Australians in their 20s were born under Mr Costello's baby bonus policy, where their parents were given tax incentives to have children.
"That of course caused the fertility rate to go up, but now, those policy discussions have stopped," Dr Davies said.
Dr Davies, Dr Canudos Romo and Dr McDonald said it was imperative for politicians to begin considering what the future of Australia would look like with a declining fertility rate, and all its outcomes.
"These Costello kids are making their plans about a family now," Dr Davies said.
"They're coming out of university with debt, they're coming out of TAFE, with debt, and then they're trying to put houses or purchase a house, and secure ongoing employment before they have a child.
"That is then directly impacting people's decisions to have children at a certain age, so they're pushing it later that you see the stats, and they're also having fewer children."
Dr Davies said this combination of factors, along with the current cost of living and housing crisis, meant she could not see Australia's fertility rate change any time soon unless the government acts now.
"These things can have an impact a generation later," she said.
Dr McDonald said it was important to start prioritising population policies not just for the wellbeing of the economy, but for the social make-up of Australia.
"Australia needs to continue to improve its work and family policies such as the provision of affordable childcare, but more for the well-being of mothers than to increase the fertility rate," he said.
"But, in coming years, we need to closely monitor the number of children that Australian women are having to ensure that we are not falling into a low fertility trap."
Loading...Mr Browning said the data collected by the ABS would go to relevant policymakers to inform their decisions.
"If you don't like that future, then you might want to act now,"he said.
"Even though it's illustrating a future, it's a statement about right now, because these are trends that are right here in our demography."